渣打银行的大宗商品专家预测，8月份全球石油需求将创下1.0224亿桶/天的历史新高

渣打银行预计，11月和12月的石油需求均将创下历史新高

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中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网4月19日报道，此前，我们报道了能源机构对石油需求增长的预测越来越悲观，包括国际能源署（IEA）和欧佩克秘书处在内的四位专家给出了不同的观点。令人担忧的是，一向乐观的美国能源信息署（EIA）在过去9个月里连续下调其预测。

其他机构预计增长乏力，渣打银行预计“需求”仅增长6.3万桶/天，较其2022年7月的预测少141万桶/天，而IEA预计增长40万桶/天，较其2022年7月的预测低232.6万桶/天。

这一切的结果是，这四个机构至少都预计会有一些增长，尽管他们似乎还没有就增长幅度达成共识。

但最棒的是，至少有一位专家预测，今年的石油需求将创下历史新高。渣打银行的大宗商品专家预测，8月份全球石油需求将创下1.0224亿桶/天的历史新高，超过2019年8月创下的1.022亿桶/天的纪录。

关于基本面是在改善还是在减弱的问题，渣打银行表示，我们可以同时考虑看涨和看跌。

乐观的解释是，这是一个历史高点；悲观的解释是，全球石油需求花了至少4年的时间才回到之前的高点。事实上，渣打银行估计，如果在这四年里一切如常，全球石油需求将再增加500万桶/天。更好的是，渣打银行预计11月和12月的石油需求将创下历史新高，2024年6月需求将首次超过1.03亿桶/天。

在天然气方面，天然气期货在周三早盘交易中缩减了周二的涨幅，因为贸易商继续考虑4月底寒冷天气对需求平衡的影响。周二，天然气价格上涨逾9%，此前周末天气预报显示，由于天气变冷，天然气需求将连续二期强劲。温和的天气驱动的需求对天然气市场造成了影响，上周五亨利中心的价格低至1.84美元。

周三的下跌标志着连续三个交易日的涨势结束。从技术角度来看，ICAP技术分析分析师Brian LaRose告诉《天然气情报》，牛市仍有一些工作要做，以控制市场。

虽然短期前景仍然疲软，由于美国南部和东部的温暖天气，预计全国需求将减弱，但中期前景可能会改善，NatGasWeather预测，随着冷锋向东移动，美国更多地区将经历比正常低点更低的温度，引发相对强劲的后期需求。

欧洲未能获得足够的长期液化天然气合同，以抵消天然气进口的中断，路透社预测，这可能在明年冬天证明代价高昂，并可能大幅收紧市场。欧盟将天然气视为向可再生能源过渡的桥梁燃料，买家通常难以签订长期合同。这意味着欧洲可能会被迫像2022年那样从现货市场购买更多天然气，这反过来可能会推高价格。

郝芬 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Standard Chartered: Oil Demand To Hit All-Time High In August

*Commodity experts at StanChart have predicted that global oil demand will set a new all-time high of 102.24mb/d in August.

*StanChart sees oil demand setting fresh all-time highs in both November and December.

*The bullish interpretation simply is that this is an all-time high; the bearish one is that it has taken no less than four years for global demand to recover.

Previously, we reported that energy agencies have been growing more bearish with their forecasts on oil demand growth with four experts including IEA and OPEC Secretariat giving divergent views. Alarmingly, the normally bullish U.S.-based Energy Information Agency (EIA) has cut its forecast in each of the past nine months.

Other agencies expect lackluster growth: Standard Chartered sees “the call” growing by just 63,000 b/d, 1.41mb/d less than its July 2022 forecast, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects growth of 400kb/d, 2.326mb/d below its July 2022 forecast.

The upshot of it all is that all four agencies at least expect some growth, though they can’t seem to come close to finding consensus on the magnitude.

But here’s the best part: at least one expert has predicted that oil demand will hit an all-time high in the current year. Commodity experts at StanChart have predicted that global oil demand will set a new all-time high of 102.24mb/d in August, surpassing the previous record of 102.2mb/d set in August 2019.

Regarding the question of whether fundamentals are improving or weakening, StanChart says we can put on both our bullish and bearish lenses.

The bullish interpretation simply is that this is an all-time high; the bearish one is that it has taken no less than four years for global demand just to get back to the previous high. Indeed, StanChart reckons that had it been business-as-usual during those four years, global oil demand would have increased by another 5mb/d. Even better, StanChart sees oil demand setting fresh all-time highs in both November and December with demand set to rise above 103mb/d for the first time in June 2024.

On the natural gas front, natural gas futures pared their Tuesday gains in early trading in Wednesday’s intraday session as traders continued to mull the impact on balances of a chilly late April weather pattern. Gas prices jumped more than 9% on Tuesday after weekend weather forecasts pointed to a second consecutive period of strong demand for natural gas due to colder weather. Mild weather-driven demand has taken a toll on gas markets, with Henry Hub prices trading as low as $1.84 on Friday.

Wednesday’s fall marks an end to a three-session rally. From a technical standpoint, ICAP Technical Analysis analyst Brian LaRose has told Natural Gas Intelligence that the bulls still have some work to do to take control of the market:

Although the short-term outlook remains soft with a swing back to light national demand expected due to warm weather in southern and eastern halves of the U.S., the medium term outlook is likely to improve with NatGasWeather predicting that much more of the U.S. will experience cooler than normal as the cold front progresses eastward, triggering relatively strong late season demand.

Europe has failed to secure enough long-term LNG contracts to offset cut-off gas imports, with Reuters predicting this may prove costly next winter and could sharply tighten the market. The European Union views natural gas as a bridge fuel in the transition to renewable energy, and buyers generally struggle to commit to long-term contracts. This means that Europe might be forced to buy more from the spot markets like it did in 2022, which in turn is likely to push prices up.

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